More on the case discussed below: Berlusconi has now called for the trial to be suspended while he tries to push through a law reintroducing immunity for parliamentarians. Otherwise, he faces the unpleasant possibility of being found guilty of corruption while serving as Prime Minister, and possibly (depending on the timing) while Italy has the Presidency of the European Union. It's doubtful that he'll succeed either in getting a suspension or getting the opposition to sign onto a new immunity law.
Berlusconi's defence of himself as reported in this article from La Repubblica is that he has a democratic mandate, unlike the judiciary. He claims that "a certain portion of the magistrates use the powers conferred on them by law to attack and eliminate those whom they consider to be their political enemies." (my translation) Berlusconi also cites "poll data" (he doesn't reveal the source) suggesting that a vast majority of Italians have no faith in the magistrates.
Undoubtedly, Italy's legal system leaves a lot to be desired - it's glacially slow, unpredictable, and often corrupt. Indeed, Berlusconi is defending himself against the charge of bribing judges in a previous case. It may also be that some of the magistrates prosecuting Berlusconi have an axe to grind (Italy has an inquisitorial judicial system, so that magistrates combine some of the functions of judges and prosecutors in one person). But nobody - nobody - doubts that Berlusconi is crooked. Check out this special report by the Economist (sub required) if you have any doubts yourself.
This is looking as though it has the makings of a serious constitutional crisis in one of the world's most important democracies. What happens if Berlusconi is convicted? In theory, not much - he can appeal the decision, and it can drag through the courts for years. In practice, quite a lot. Italy is deeply divided over Berlusconi - not so much over whether he is guilty or innocent, but over whether he's being held to account for illegal acts that every major Italian businessman* committed in order to prosper. This festering disagreement is going to boil over if "Il Cavaliere" (Berlusconi's nickname) is found guilty. Berlusconi's supporters will see it as an illegitimate ruling by a politicised judiciary. His opponents will see it as evidence that the prime minister has no right to hold public office. Each camp has about a third of the electorate, with a third undecided. It all makes for a nasty battle. The left, obviously, will do its best to capitalise on Berlusconi's travails. Indeed, this is why Berlusconi has tried to drag Prodi into the morass (see post below) - he sees Prodi as his most likely rival in the next general election, and wants to get his licks in first.
It's going to be equally interesting to see how the European Union responds. The other member states have done their best to hold their noses and overlook Berlusconi's domestic legal problems, even when they disrupt EU business (as when Italy opposed a general European arrest warrant for fear that Berlusconi find himself nabbed by the local law on a visit to Spain or elsewhere). It's going to be hard to turn a blind eye anymore if Berlusconi has been handed a stiff sentence. Especially if he is then head of the European Council, and nominal "Mr. Europe." However, there aren't any very good ways for other member states to deal with this sort of problem; while there are procedures for handling member states that have strayed from the path of democracy, it would be hard to invoke them against someone who has, after all, won office in a reasonably fair election. More likely, perhaps would be the kind of diplomatic deep-freeze applied to Austria after Joerg Haider's Freedom Party was invited into government - but this is widely perceived as having backfired. More on this as it develops ...
* gender specificity intentional - Italian business is an old boys club.
Posted by Henry at May 7, 2003 10:04 AM | TrackBack